Before we get into this rather extensive FunkyPlayoff Preview, a quick recap
of the rules:
Points are now bad things.
Each person who starts the playoffs will start with however many points they
trailed the leader at the end of the regular season. The leader at the end
of the regular season (Emerton), therefore, starts the playoffs with zero
points. All points accumulated in the playoffs are cumulative, so each week you add the points you get to whatever total you started with in that
week.
Participants predict who will win each playoff game, and by how much. They
are penalized one point for every point they're off, and then something like
8 points if they pick the wrong team.
That 8-point penalty is where the action is. Let's say Emerton picks the
Bucs to win by 3, and Wyatt correctly picks the Skins to win by 3. Bam:
that's like 14 points right there just because Tampa missed a field goal in
overtime or something. Crazy.
The four highest point-totals get cut at the end of this weekend. Four more
at the end of next weekend. Then when two teams get cut in the Conference
Championship game, two more participants get cut, and two are left for the
FunkyBowl. Look at it this way: 12 playoff teams, 12 participants. As the
teams are eliminated, so are the participants (at the end of the weekend).
In the FunkyBowl, same rules apply, but either participant has the
opportunity to make the SuperPick (the right team and the exact margin of
victory) to win the Slate outright.
Here at Weekly Recap, we're gonna look at each participant and analyze his
or her chances. But first, we wanted to look at the past FunkyPlayoffs to
see what kind of comebacks have been proven possible. Does the regular
season leader always hold on? Or is there a chance for somebody 100 points
back? These questions get asked every year and never get answered. Now
we're going to answer them. And besides, one of FunkyLeader Eric Emerton's
favorite things about the Super Bowl used to be watching the "hour-long NFL
Films Super Bowl recaps" marathon. So, without further ado...
An unprecedented history lesson:
(remember, Emerton is leading his father by 22, and the pack by about 60).
1994-95
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No playoffs.
1996 - Saab holds on
---------------------------
Sabbe entered the playoffs winning by 19, with the pack only 23 behind.
In the first-ever round of FunkyPlayoffs, Adam Jennings had a weekend that
still stands as one of the most amazing. He scored 35 on one game (which
everyone did poorly on), but missed one game by only one point, and then
tabbed the other two games perfectly. One of the games he tabbed perfectly
was Dallas by 25.
25!
Meanwhile, Saab played it safe and held his ground against everyone but
Jenaroo, who had gained 19 points on him in 3 rounds, and was only 4 points
behind in FunkyBowl I.
FunkyBowl I: Saab picked GB by 10, Jen picked GB by 22, and the Pack won by
14. Saabe took his second Slate.
1997 - the Broncos/McKeans upset the world
--------------------------------------------
Another exciting FunkyBowl after a conservative playoffs.
JLee had a 9-point advantage over Jim McKean after the regular season. The
pack was about 40 back. JLee and JM both played it safe, and nobody really
could make a move.
In FunkyBowl II, JLee had a lead of 7.5 points, and picked the favored
Packers to win by 13. McKean picked Denver by 3. Denver won by 8, and
McKean won the Slate by 8.5 points. This is the only time where somebody
entered the FunkyBowl in second place and came out with the Slate.
1998 - Easy Money
------------------------
Money finished the season up by 56 points. He went conservative all the way
through (except for the Dallas game), and won easily. The most anyone
picked up on him through 3 rounds was Eric Emerton with 3 net points.
1999 - Dylans gang up on JG
----------------------
Jason Giordano finished the regular season up about 24 points on the pack.
In the first round, JG got a little frisky and was subsequently crushed,
finishing last for the week. Dylan Oliver picked up 30 points, and Dylan
Retsek picked up 40 and took the overall lead.
After that, the Dylans played it safe and made it to the FunkyBowl, where
Money won. JG, after surrendering 65 net points in three rounds to Money,
finished 3rd.
2000 - Emerton crushes FunkyJr.'s dream
--------------------------------
Scott Wyatt finished the regular season up only 13 and 14 points on 2nd and
3rd respectively.
In the first round, he played it conservative, which put him in the middle
of the pack (80 points), but 4th-place Eric Emerton (24 points back) gained
an astounding 63 points on Scott (with 17 total points) and took a
significant lead. This was, by far, the most impressive round of playoffs
in the history of the FMNFLP.
After that, EE played it safe and coasted to the FunkyBowl. Dylan Oliver
(4th place out of 4) hit two solo shots in the 3rd round to gain 40 points
on the pace and make it to the Championship Game, where he lost to Emerton.
In three rounds, Emerton gained 80 points on Scott, who finished 3rd.
2001 - Godsey's ass-tease
--------------------------------
In the only instance where the regular season winner lost the lead, and then
regained it, Godsey won FunkyBowl VI.
Godsey finished the regular season up by about 25 on the pack, and probably
should have played it safe.
But as he had done all season, he got frisky in the first round -- and got
punished for it. Money gained 14, Wego gained 16, Jenaroo gained 35, and
5th-place Sabbe picked up 52 points on Godsey's ass and took the lead.
In the second round, however, Godsey stayed aggressive and crushed everyone,
regaining the lead. Sabbe lost 61 points to Godsey, and never recovered.
That 61-point freefall, by the way, was significantly aided by the "tuck
rule" game between the Raiders and Patriots (Godsey had the Patriots), which
makes that funny game even more hilarious.
Lesson learned, Godsey played tight in the 3rd round, and beat Jenaroo in
the FunkyBowl, and after a couple weeks of fleeting hope, JLee had to kiss
his ass after all.
Despite the roller coaster, Jen was the only one to pick up points on
Godsey, and only 3.
2002 - Emerton steamrolls
------------------
In a postseason which might foreshadow this year's, Eric Emerton entered the
postseason up by 30 points. He played a conservative ground game, and
nobody could pick up any points on him.
Kathy, way back in the pack, got aggressive and picked up 27 points in the
first round, but the surrendered 80 points in the second round -- one of the
biggest face-plants in FunkyHistory. Nobody else made a move. Chris Sabbe
did best by only falling off the pace 3 points, and lost to Emerton in the
Bowl.
2003 - Sullivan keeps it real
--------------------------------
Besides Godsey in 2001, this was the only year where the leader wasn't
afraid to throw the ball. Sullivan entered the playoffs up by 13 and 29 on
2nd and 3rd.
He got frisky in the first round and virtually won the week.
In the second round, he played it tight and Kurt Schwartz picked up 28.
In the third round, Ken Vis gained 20 but to no avail.
Schwartz gained 28 total points on the leader, but Sullivan held on to win
FunkyBowl VIII.
2004 - The Bill Ellis Bulldozer
---------------------------
With a bull leading the charge, it was a dozer of a postseason. Bill
entered the playoffs with a record 63-point advantage. He played it
conservative all the way through, and while individuals made individual
rushes at him (Scott picked up 22 in the first round; Mr. Emerton picked up
32 in the 2nd round), the lead was ultimately too much.
Mr. Emerton did the best of the pack by picking up 24 total points, but he
was still down 47 in the FunkyBowl, which Bill won easily -- and with a
SuperPick, no less. He picked the Patriots to win by 3, which is exactly
what they did. (Easy, Bill.)
Which leads us to....FunkyBowl X
The discouraging news:
--------------------------------
Only three times in FunkyHistory has somebody come from behind to win the
Slate, and not once since 2000. Furthermore, in one of the cases, the
"comeback" didn't really occur until the actual FunkyBowl, where a
semi-miraculous upset took it down.
While there are several cases of somebody taking some chances and
picking up 20-30 points on the leader in one weekend, there are virtually no
cases of anybody doing it consistently. Eric Emerton once picked up 80
total points on the leader, and Money once picked up 65 on the leader -- but
they both did it with giant one-weekend outbursts and then playing it safe.
And besides those two cases, nobody has ever gained more than 28 net points
on a leader over a 3-week span. Meaning, nobody has a chance at the Slate
but Emerton or Emerton.
The most discouraging news, of course, is the leader himself. Emerton
has 3 Slates already, and the last time he had the lead going into the
playoffs (a 30-point lead, like this one), he worked the ground game like he
was Jerome Bettis and couldn't be stopped. And this year looks no different
-- he's been unstoppable all season.
The encouraging news:
-------------------------------
Miracles do happen, and the playoff format is designed to allow for them.
And while it was Emerton himself who did it, he did in fact gain 80 net
points, which technically includes half the playoff pack, and gives the rest
of the pack a dream.
Furthermore, just because nobody's ever put together back-to-back
monsters doesn't mean it can't happen. And instances of weekly leaps are
scattered, but certainly existent -- Emerton gained 63 in one week, Sabbe
gained 52 in one week, Money gained 40 in one week, DOliver gained 40 points
in the semifinals (only two games), and so on.
And there is some minor consolation in looking at the leader -- at
least you don't have to play mindgames with him. With Sullivan or Godsey
setting the pace, you might have to factor in which way they might dart.
With Emerton and Emerton, you know they're going to stay the middle road --
you just have to figure out which way you want to veer, and how much.
The Players:
----------------
1. Eric Emerton -- The prohibitive favorite entering the playoffs, E is
better than even money to take down his 4th Slate. He has a history of
dominating the FunkyPlayoffs, and he is absolutely dialed in this year.
2. Mr. Emerton -- He was setting the pace early on in 2005, but he's slipped
over the past month, and perhaps too far. But while 22 points is
significant, it's certainly within his grasp. In 1996, Jen was back by 23,
and got within 4 for the FunkyBowl. In 1999, Money trailed by 24 and made
that up in the first weekend. Chris Sabbe trailed by 35 in 2001 and made
that up in the first weekend. And Mr. Emerton himself has shown a history
of success in the FunkyPlayoffs -- just last year he picked up 24 points on
Bill Ellis before the final showdown. Mr. Emerton's odds stand about 5-2.
3. Robert Hassanali -- Sorry, but there's a giant drop-off after Mr.
Emerton. Hassanali has no playoff experience whatsoever, and more
importantly, sits 57 points back -- with no momentum. Furthermore, he
hasn't shown the ability to throw the long ball, which he's going to have to
do. Odds for RH are about 15-1.
4. Diane Emerton -- On the flip side, Diane has shown the ability to throw
deep and play crazy and do it well. After dominating the season early on,
she has fallen to 60 back, but she has shown the creativity to make the
move(s) neccessary to making this a 3-Emerton race. She's been particularly
accurate with some longshots this year, and it wouldn't shock anyone if she
pulls off a 30-40 gain in one weekend -- or gets eliminated after one
weekend. Odds for DE: 12-1.
5. Jason Sullivan -- The longshot king. If anyone can use his creativity to
make a major push, it's Sullivan. We'd say he and Godsey, but Godsey has
notoriously sucked in the postseason. Sullivan has never pulled any
dramatic comebacks, but he's got the passing game to make it exciting with a
little luck. Jason Sullivan: 10-1. (Note: these are Vegas odds, not ours.
Anybody but Emerton or Emerton really has about a 40-1 shot at the Slate.)
6. Kurt Schwartz -- Kurt has shown postseason moxie in the past -- he gained
28 total points on the leader as recently as 2003, which earned him a trip
to FunkyBowl VIII. But this time he needs 66 points to steal Mr. Emerton's
ticket to the Bowl. And 88 points off the pace sure seems a lot worse than
Diane's 60. Odds: 30-1.
7. Money -- It was the most dramatic moment of the season when Money nailed
the first-ever Perfect Week. Perhaps the second-biggest moment was when he
forgot to submit his picks in Week 15. Had he finished in the middle of the
pack that week, he'd be a serious threat to E. If he had smoked that week,
he'd be right in Emerton's kitchen. As it is, he's 87 out, and a longshot
at best. But you can never count Money out until he's actually eliminated.
In 1999, he was in 3rd place until he picked up 40 points in one week, and
coasted to his second straight Slate. Overall, he has two Slates, a
comeback championship, 13 weekly wins, a perfect week, and the best picking
percentage of anyone in the pool. Odds: 20-1.
8. Scott Wyatt -- Funky Junior has had a history of playoff disappointment
in this pool -- he's entered the playoffs as the #1 seed (2000) and the #2
seed (2002) and finished with the bronze both times. This time he's the
8-seed, almost a hundred points back. Maybe if the Giants make the Super
Bowl (and he picks them), he'll have a chance. Maybe. Odds: 50-1.
9. Tully Wyatt -- Funky himself, after starting the season in a hole, has
impressively escalated up the standings all season, thanks to a intelligent,
conservative, workmanlike gameplan. But the steady pace hit a pothole last
week, and now he's going to have to open up a gutsier game to make the Final
Four. We'll see if he's got that in his arsenal. Odds: 45-1.
10. Bill Ellis -- Until somebody else wins it, Bill still has the Slate, and
isn't just going to just give it away. And now that he has the Favre-anchor
off his ankle, maybe he'll be free to fly. In his limited playoff history,
however, he has shown no ability to do much more than stay the course.
Odds: 55-1.
11. Kathy Walser -- After starting the year in last place, Kathy (like her
fiance) has made a very nice climb into the playoffs, and her Bronco Pride
-- as it has all season -- might get her places. Her compromising low pick
on her horses last week, however, kinda spooked some of her fans who are
eager for her to loosen the reins and make a rush. Especially from 113 out.
Odds: 70-1.
12. DOliver -- 114 points back, DOliver has almost no chance of
participating in the FunkyBowl that he's hosting. But he has a playoff
history that keeps his hopes up. He has gained 40 points on the leader in
one weekend, and he has gained 30 in another. He has to string three of
those in a row, but that means it's possible. Odds: 70-1.
Here at the Recap, we really don't see any outcome other than an
Emerton-Emerton FunkyBowl X. And while Mr. Emerton *might* pull the deficit
into the teens, we don't anticipate anything other than an easy title for
Eric Emerton, his fourth overall. Perhaps it's just cynicism, however, and
we're frankly hoping for some poolsters make a rush.
What might be more interesting is what happens within the pack. Who
will make mad rushes at the Slate from a hundred back? And who will sit
tight and just try to make a little extra cash while the longshooters fall
back?
Remember that picks are due Saturday morning.
We'll try to do a minor update Saturday night if somebody makes a move (or
somebody gets mathematically eliminated).
See ya then...
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